"There are going to be some weeks when we'll be really short of material," he says, "but it's scattered."

Because of increased production by other reactors and staggered operating schedules, Dr. Atcher believes there will only be two or three weeks when the supply of isotopes will be so short as to reach only 20 to 30 percent of global demand.


But it's still a challenge, Dr. Atcher says. Unlike the NRU reactor, which can overclock to extend its capacity, most reactors can only run for four to six weeks at a stretch because they need loading; and personnel require frequent breaks to prevent fatigue-caused mishaps. Plus, they blaze through heaps of fuel.

"The other thing that happens is, if they ramp up their production, they burn more fuel. I know at least two of the reactors needed funding supplements so they could buy more fuel," Dr. Atcher says.

A lot depends on Canada

Nonetheless, Dr. Atcher believes the situation looks better than it did a few months ago, before the reactors had coordinated their operating schedules. The only hitch is if Canada's NRU doesn't come back online when expected.

At the conference this week, Dr. Atcher saw pictures from the Atomic Energy of Canada Limited of the ongoing repairs of the NRU. "They have some tests to show they actually fixed the leaks, but it's very difficult work," he says. The custom-built tools have to drop down 10 meters and reach reactor walls. "They're going through 4 centimeter tubes, and sticking down welding equipment. It's like laparoscopic surgery on a reactor vessel," he says.

And aside from the technical difficulty, there's always the question of whether Canada's regulatory agencies will approve the reactor re-start. Two years ago, the regulatory authorities and the reactor operators got into a dispute that was resolved only when the Canadian parliament overruled the regulatory authority, Dr. Atcher says.

If the NRU doesn't go back online, the supply problems could be somewhat more serious. "It's a little bit difficult," Dr. Atcher says. "We'll still be able to meet somewhere around two-thirds of production demands," although there will be brief spells when only a fifth or even a tenth of global demand is met.

At least the NRC is confident the Dutch reactor will be back up when scheduled. "For now, it will be in the second half of August, and a final date will be communicated once we are in the carry-out phase of the project," van der Laan says.

Still, she's fairly confident it will be finished in time.

"We know for sure it will be successful," she adds.


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