"This model will help inform clinical advice so that people can take proportionate precautions to protect themselves from COVID-19."
The researchers plan to regularly update their model as levels of immunity change, more data become available and behaviour in the population changes, so that the model could also be used to support risk stratification for public health purposes as the infection rate changes over time.

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The research was funded by the NIHR following a commission by the Chief Medical Officer for England.
Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England Dr Jenny Harries said: "Continuing to improve our understanding of the virus and how it affects different members of the population is vital as prevalence continues to rise.
"This is why we commissioned and funded this research, and I'm pleased it is providing useful evidence to help us move towards a more nuanced understanding of COVID-19 risk.
"We are working at pace and will maintain our ongoing engagement with patients, the healthcare profession and the voluntary sector on how we use this knowledge to ensure we continue protecting and supporting the most clinically vulnerable."
The research team is led by the University of Oxford and includes researchers from the universities of Cambridge, Edinburgh, Swansea, Leicester, Nottingham and Liverpool with the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Queen's University Belfast, Queen Mary University of London, University College London, the Department of Health and Social Care, NHS Digital and NHS England.
Professor Jonathan Valabhji, National Clinical Director for Diabetes and Obesity at NHS England, said: "Along with other characteristics like age and ethnicity, the evidence shows that both diabetes and obesity are risk factors for COVID-19 and this risk prediction tool has the potential to much more accurately gauge risk for each individual, drawing together all of their relevant characteristics and ultimately helping them to stay as safe as possible during this pandemic."
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