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Global demand for cancer surgery set to surge

Press releases may be edited for formatting or style | January 25, 2021 Operating Room
Public health researchers, led by UNSW Sydney, have estimated the number of cancer cases requiring surgery globally each year, predicting the number will rise from 9.1 million to 13.8 million from 2018 to 2040 - an increase of 52 per cent or 4.7 million cases.

Their research shows the greatest relative increase will occur in 34 low-income countries, where the number of cases requiring surgery is expected to more than double by 2040 (314,355 cases to 650,164, or 107 per cent).

The modelling study, published in The Lancet Oncology on Friday, analysed global demand for cancer surgery and estimated surgical and anaesthesia workforce requirements between 2018 and 2040.

Lead author Dr Sathira Perera, a UNSW Scientia PhD scholar, said an absence of evidence-based estimates of future demand had restricted efforts to improve cancer care around the world.

Cancer is a leading cause of death and disability globally, and has substantial economic impacts, with recent evidence suggesting a disproportionate burden of disease in low- and middle-income countries.

"Our analysis has revealed that, in relative terms, low-income countries will bear the brunt of increased future demand for cancer surgery, bringing with it a need to substantially increase numbers of surgeons and anaesthetists," Dr Perera said.

"These findings highlight a need to act quickly to ensure that increasing workforce requirements in low-income countries are adequately planned for. There needs to be an increased focus on the application of cost-effective models of care, along with government endorsement of scientific evidence to mobilise resources for expanding services.

"In addition, access to post-operative care is strongly linked to lower mortality - so, improving care systems globally must be a priority in order to reduce the disproportionate number of deaths following complications."

The modelling study was an international collaboration between researchers from UNSW Sydney, University of Toronto, Kings College London, and the World Health Organization.

The researchers used best-practice guidelines, patient characteristics and cancer stage data to calculate the proportion of newly diagnosed cancer cases requiring surgery in 183 countries.

To predict future surgery demand, they applied these rates to GLOBACAN cancer incidence predictions from 2018 to 2040.

The study did not assess the impact of COVID-19, but the researchers acknowledge the delivery of high-quality post-operative care is more challenging during a pandemic.

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