According to the World Bank, U.S. population grew 0.8 percent in 2010. And Baker said the 65 and up cohort grows about 2 percent a year.

"That 13.6 percent doesn't factor in those two elements," he said. "We consider it to be conservative."

STATE BY STATE

Not all states will face the changes equally. Some, like Massachusetts, Minnesota and Hawaii, already have comprehensive health programs, and as a result, most of their residents are insured. Baker said their predictions show that in Massachusetts, imaging services will grow a manageable 4 percent.


"Just by increasing service hours, it's probably at a level where (imaging providers) can handle it," he said.

But imaging centers in other states will have more work to do. Texas, California and Georgia, for instance, all have large uninsured populations. Thus, for Texas, CT and MRI services, together, could grow nearly 25 percent statewide, according to Regent's forecast. This could put a strain on Lone Star providers, especially as many work with older, lower-throughput equipment, he said.

"Texas and California are going to have a tough time," he said.

FATE OF HEALTH REFORM

Baker said it's hard to say how easily imaging centers could absorb the new patients.

Of course, they'd likely have to buy new equipment or hire new staff. But he said his team is still crunching the numbers to develop the projections for new equipment purchases and radiologist and radiologic tech hiring. Nonetheless, he expects it will be "good news" for medical imaging OEMs.

But some things are harder to figure out at the moment, such as what the reimbursement level will be for providers on some of these new insurance plans - will service payments be closer to Medicare, for instance, or Medicaid?

It's also possible that in a few weeks, this whole conversation will be moot.

Last month, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments over the constitutionality of health reform, and some analysts think the conservative majority on the bench appeared to be in favor of striking down the law, or at least its centerpiece, the individual mandate. What happens then?

"All these forecasts go away," Baker said.

Baker is confident many elements of reform will survive, but his confidence is certainly not shared by everyone. For what it's worth, as of Wednesday afternoon, bettors on the online prediction market Intrade favored a nearly 71 percent chance that the U.S. Supreme Court will overturn the individual mandate this year, with pro-overturning shares trading at $7.12.


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