The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) have completed a preliminary estimate of the Reconciliation Act being considered in the House this week, and possibly up for a vote this Sunday. The CBO has determined that the insurance provisions of the Reconciliation Act will cost $940 billion over 10 years, to extend coverage to 32 million uninsured.

The CBO provides: An estimate of the budgetary effects of the Reconciliation Act in combination with the effects of H.R. 3590, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act as passed by the Senate; an estimate of the incremental effects of the Reconciliation Act over and above the effects of enacting H.R. 3590 by itself; and an estimate of the budgetary impact of the reconciliation proposal under the assumption that H.R. 3590 is not enacted.

CBO and JCT estimate that enacting both pieces of legislation--H.R. 3590 and the Reconciliation Act--would reduce the deficit by $138 billion over the period from 2010-2019. If H.R. 3590 is not enacted, CBO estimates the Reconciliation Act (based on the provisions reviewed thus far) would reduce deficits by $82 billion over the 2010-2019 period.
For the decade beyond 2019, the CBO and JCT analysis indicates that H.R. 3590, as passed by the Senate, would reduce federal budget deficits in a broad range between one-quarter percent and one-half percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The combined effect of enacting H.R. 3590 and the Reconciliation Act would reduce federal budget deficits in a broad range around one-half percent of GDP, an amount that Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)'s Web site says is $1.2 trillion. The incremental effect of enacting the reconciliation bill (over and above the effect of enacting H.R. 3590 by itself) would further reduce federal budget deficits in a broad range between zero and one-quarter percent of GDP.

The preliminary estimate (of the $940 billion cost for the insurance coverage provisions of the Reconciliation Act combined with H.R. 3590 for 2010-2019) includes Medicaid and CHIP provisions, exchange subsidies and small employer tax credits. This is reduced to a net $794 billion by virtue of penalty payments, excise tax on high-premium insurance plans and other taxes.

Read the CBO analysis: http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/113xx/doc11355/hr4872.pdf

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