A report in the Journal of Oncology Practice predicts that the United States may very well suffer a dangerous shortage of cancer doctors over the next two decades.

The report predicts a shortfall of up to 4,000 oncologists by 2020.

The shortage is being fueled in part by an aging population and more cancer survivors. It is also exacerbated by a slowing in the number of oncologists available as more reach retirement age.
"The graying of America will result in substantial increase in demand for cancer care," said Dr. Dean Bajorin, an oncologist with Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center in New York City and co-chairman of the American Society for Clinical Oncology's (ASCO) Workforce Implementation Working Group. "This is a looming crisis that already needs to be addressed prospectively."

Experts estimate that nearly 1.4 million Americans will be diagnosed with cancer this year and more than 560,000 will die of the disease, making cancer the second-leading cause of death in the United States after heart disease.

Cancer is primarily a disease of older people and the number of Americans aged 65 and older is expected to double between 2000 and 2030.

Right now, supply and demand for oncologists is relatively balanced but that equilibrium is already showing signs of strain, the report's authors said.

"In 2003, it was apparent that oncologists' workload was increasing and we were having problems locating medical oncologists to hire for academic or community practices," noted Dr. Michael Goldstein, a cancer specialist with Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston and chairman of the ASCO Workforce in Oncology Task Force.

"The bottom line is no matter which scenario we looked at, it is likely that we'll be facing a shortage," said Dr. Edward Salsberg, director of the Association of American Medical Colleges' Center for Workforce Studies.

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