New research from the Harvey L. Neiman Health Policy Institute projects that the current shortage of radiologists in the U.S. is likely to persist through 2055 without intervention.

The studies model future radiologist workforce supply and imaging demand, highlighting key factors influencing the balance between the two.

According to one study, if the number of radiology residency positions remains unchanged, the supply of radiologists will grow by 25.7% between 2023 and 2055. Meanwhile, a companion study on imaging demand estimates an increase in utilization between 16.9% and 26.9% over the same period, depending on imaging modality.

"Given the comparable projected levels of growth in supply and demand, the present radiologist shortage is projected to persist unless steps are taken to grow the workforce and/or decrease per person imaging utilization," said Dr. Eric Christensen, research director at the Neiman Institute. "In other words, the shortage is not projected to get worse, nor will it likely improve in the next three decades without effective action."

One key variable in workforce projections is attrition. The study found that radiologists have been leaving the workforce at a 50% higher rate since 2020, largely due to pandemic-related factors. If attrition returns to pre-pandemic levels, the U.S. could see 3,116 more radiologists by 2055 compared to current trends.

Demographic shifts will also play a role in future imaging demand. The U.S. Census Bureau projects an 8.2% increase in the overall population by 2055, with particularly sharp growth in older age groups — those most likely to require imaging. The population of individuals aged 75-84 is expected to increase by 51.5%, while the 85-94 and 95-plus age groups are projected to grow by 149.6% and 282.1%, respectively.

"Both the projected increase in the number of older individuals and the relative aging of the U.S. population contribute substantially to the projected increased future imaging demand," said Christensen.

Efforts to address the shortage include improving workplace conditions to reduce attrition, expanding residency programs, and leveraging technology such as artificial intelligence to enhance efficiency. The American College of Radiology has already initiated programs to optimize imaging utilization and develop AI tools to assist with triage and interpretation.

"We hope that estimates of how these factors each influence future imaging rates will benefit policymakers working to ensure sustainable access and affordability of healthcare," said Dr. Elizabeth Rula, executive director at the Neiman Institute.

The research was published in the Journal of the American College of Radiology.

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